Cervical Cancer Deaths Have Yet to Appear in England’s First HPV-Vaccinated Generation

CATEGORY: IMMUNE HEALTH

Among women aged 20 to 24 in England during 2020 to 2024, not one died of cervical cancer. Death rates from before vaccination say roughly 23 of them should have.¹ That age band is the first generation old enough to have been offered HPV vaccination routinely at 12 or 13, which England began in 2008. HPV is human papillomavirus, a common sexually transmitted virus behind nearly all cervical cancer. Earlier work showed the vaccine cutting infections and abnormal cells. This is the first national evidence that it cuts deaths.

Twenty-Four Years of Death Registrations Against a Projection

The researchers took every cervical cancer death registered in England from 2001 to 2024 in women aged 20 to 34. They grouped them by age band and by year. Death rates from the years before vaccination were then used to project what each age group should have looked like had the program never arrived. That projection is the comparison. Coverage figures came from official program records by birth year, so what sits on either side of the comparison is a generation of women, not a list of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

The Earlier the Vaccination, the Wider the Gap

Women vaccinated routinely at 12 or 13, before likely exposure to the virus, showed the largest effect: no deaths against about 23 expected, a 100% reduction, with the data able to rule out anything smaller than an 84% reduction. Women caught up as older teenagers in the 2008 to 2010 campaign had 80% lower mortality in their early twenties. Women aged 25 to 29 in the same recent period had 69% lower. Across the whole analysis, about 200 cervical cancer deaths were prevented in England through the end of 2024, with a statistical range of roughly 125 to 274.¹ The gradient follows the mechanism. A vaccine that prevents infection protects most those who receive it before they meet the virus. That is also why nothing has yet appeared in women aged 30 to 34, who were largely past the vaccination window when the program began.

Small Counts, Whole Generations, a Screening Program in the Background

This is observational research comparing birth cohorts rather than individuals, so it shows association and not proof of causation, and the authors say so. The absolute numbers are small, because dying of cervical cancer in one’s early twenties is uncommon to begin with. Most cervical cancer deaths occur in older women whose generations the program has not yet reached, so national totals have not collapsed. Changes to England’s cervical screening program over the same period could account for part of the drop at ages 25 and above. Routine screening invitations there do not begin until 25, which leaves the youngest group’s result the cleanest in the study. Cancer Research UK funded the work, not a vaccine manufacturer.

Scotland and Sweden Line Up Behind It

In Scotland, among women given the bivalent vaccine at age 12 or 13, no invasive cervical cancer was recorded during follow-up.² Bivalent means the version aimed at the two HPV types behind most cervical cancer. A Swedish study of 1.7 million girls and women linked vaccination before age 17 to about 88% lower cervical cancer risk. Vaccination after that age was linked to roughly 53% lower.³

Key Takeaways

• English women aged 20 to 24 in 2020 to 2024 recorded no cervical cancer deaths against about 23 expected, a 100% reduction, with the data ruling out anything below 84%.
• Reductions were smaller in women vaccinated later as teenagers, at 80%, and in women aged 25 to 29, at 69%, matching a vaccine that works by preventing infection before exposure.
• Birth cohorts are being compared here rather than individuals, and the counts are small because death from cervical cancer is rare at these ages.

References

1. Sasieni P, Falcaro M. Cervical cancer mortality trends following HPV vaccination in England, 2001–24: an analysis of population-based mortality data. The Lancet. 2026;408(10550):162–168. link
2. Palmer TJ, Kavanagh K, Cuschieri K, et al. Invasive cervical cancer incidence following bivalent human papillomavirus vaccination: a population-based observational study of age at immunization, dose, and deprivation. Journal of the National Cancer Institute. 2024;116(6):857–865. link.
3. Lei J, Ploner A, Elfström KM, et al. HPV vaccination and the risk of invasive cervical cancer. New England Journal of Medicine. 2020;383(14):1340–1348. link.