Higher Type 2 Diabetes Risk Went With Diets Heavier in Ultra-Processed Foods

CATEGORY: METABOLIC & BLOOD SUGAR

Does it matter how much of a person’s food comes out of a factory, or only what is in it? To find out, researchers tracked nearly 312,000 European adults for about 11 years. Every 10% of daily intake made up of ultra-processed foods was linked to a 17% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes, according to their analysis in The Lancet Regional Health–Europe.¹ Trading that same 10% for less-processed food went with a 14% to 18% lower risk. And the category did not behave as one thing.

Nova Sorts Food by How Far It Has Traveled From a Kitchen

The sorting was done with the Nova system, which groups foods by how much industrial processing they have been through rather than by their nutrients. At one end sit unprocessed or minimally processed foods: fresh or frozen produce, plain meat, eggs, milk, grains, plus basic cooking ingredients. In the middle sit processed foods such as cheese, canned vegetables, cured meats and simple breads, made by adding salt, sugar or oil to whole foods. At the far end sit ultra-processed foods, industrial products built from refined ingredients and additives you would not find in a home kitchen. Packaged snacks, sweetened drinks, ready meals and reconstituted meat products all land there.¹

One Questionnaire in the 1990s, 14,236 Diabetes Cases Later

The EPIC study signed up adults across eight European countries in the 1990s, each filling in a detailed diet questionnaire at the start. Every food reported was assigned to a Nova group, and researchers worked out what share of each person’s daily intake, by weight, came from each group. Then they waited. Over an average of 10.9 years, new cases of type 2 diabetes were confirmed through medical records, registries and other sources rather than self-report alone. Among the 311,892 people analyzed, 14,236 developed the disease.¹

Half the Link Appeared to Run Through Body Fat

With age, sex, education, smoking, physical activity and other factors accounted for, each 10% higher share of ultra-processed food was linked to a 17% higher risk of type 2 diabetes. The reverse held as well. Each 10% higher share of minimally processed food went with a 6% lower risk, and each 10% of processed food with an 8% lower risk. In a modeled swap, replacing 10% of ultra-processed food with minimally processed food was linked to a 14% lower risk, and with processed food to an 18% lower risk. Roughly half of the ultra-processed link appeared to run through higher body fat.¹

Savory Snacks and Sweet Drinks Carried the Risk; Bread Did Not

Broken into sub-groups, the category came apart. The higher risk concentrated in savory snacks, processed animal products such as reconstituted meats, ready-to-eat meals, and drinks sweetened with sugar or with artificial sweeteners. Ultra-processed breads, biscuits and breakfast cereals, sweets and desserts, and plant-based meat alternatives were linked instead to somewhat lower risk. The authors suggest the specific products may matter more than the label covering them.¹ Because the design was observational, it marks an association and not proof of cause. Diet was measured once, and people who eat more ultra-processed food may differ in ways no questionnaire captures.

Other evidence runs the same direction. A 2024 review of the pooled evidence graded the ultra-processed food link to type 2 diabetes as convincing.² A separate pooling of prospective studies put the increase nearer 12% for each 10% of intake, and inside its three large American cohorts the product pattern flipped: savory snacks and refined breads were linked there to lower risk, not higher.³

Key Takeaways

• Across 311,892 European adults followed for about 11 years, each 10% of daily intake from ultra-processed foods was linked to a 17% higher risk of type 2 diabetes; swapping that share for less-processed food went with a 14% to 18% lower risk.
• The added risk sat mainly with savory snacks, processed meats, ready meals and sweetened drinks, while ultra-processed breads and cereals were not linked to higher risk.
• This was observational research: a link, not a demonstration of cause.

References

1. Dicken SJ, Dahm CC, Ibsen DB, et al. Food consumption by degree of food processing and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2024;46:101043. link
2. Lane MM, Gamage E, Du S, et al. Ultra-processed food exposure and adverse health outcomes: umbrella review of epidemiological meta-analyses. BMJ. 2024;384:e077310. link.
3. Chen Z, Khandpur N, Desjardins C, et al. Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes: three large prospective U.S. cohort studies. Diabetes Care. 2023;46(7):1335–1344. link.